Hayden Winks Fantasy Analyst Thu, October 29, 2026 at 4:06 PM UTC · 31 min read About Our Ads Advertisement Advertisement Advertisement The Blueprint is my weekly column and basically everything that I use to build out the most accurate rankings I can. There will be an RB column , a WR column and a this combination column on the onesie positions. You will find film notes and endless charts. Maybe enough charts to stress test the Yahoo website. I kid.
It's impossible to get every ranking thoroughly early in the week, so be sure to keep checking in on these columns through Sunday morning. As always, my full rankings at every position are available .
1. Josh Allen (vs. BAL) - 22.9 proj. points
Allen continues to lead all quarterbacks with 28.1 half PPR points per game as the clear-cut QB1. A combination of being the QB6 in EPA per dropback while also averaging 40.0 rushing yards per game (QB2) makes him a Round 2 value in fantasy. Keep in mind that DJ Moore has barely played this year, too. He should be back for this game.
Week 8 brings a home tilt against a Ravens defense allowing the 19th-most half PPR points per game to QBs. Baltimore just surrendered 28.9 fantasy points and four passing touchdowns to Joe Burrow in Week 7, and that game included downfield shots and some out-of-structure moments. Those are Allen's specialties. Buffalo enters as 3.5-point home favorites with an implied team total of 28.5 points (second). Lamar Jackson is also expected to play.
2. Lamar Jackson (at BUF) - 21.4 proj. points
We'll get more confirmation on his status later, but healthy Lamar Jackson was pacing to be the MVP before this ankle sprain. His +0.40 EPA per dropback is the best in the NFL. He isn't rushing the ball like in his prime (36 YPG), but new OC Declan Doyle is adding more explosiveness in the air by unlocking Zay Flowers and sprinkling in Ja'Kobi Lane's catch radius underneath and along the sideline. It's a fun offense when everyone is out there together.
The Bills defense has some nice players but lacks the depth or the experience in this new scheme to be a great unit. They've allowed the third-most fantasy points to QBs (23.5) and the second-most passing yards per game (299), which would be the most in the NFL if it were a QB itself. Lamar Jackson had a 29.4-point game against them in Week 1 of last year and cleared 22.1 points in each of his 2024 contests. Most recently, it was Kirk Cousins (QB8), Matthew Stafford (QB6) and Drake Maye (QB1) popping off.
3. Drake Maye (at MIA) - 21.4 proj. points
Maye enters Week 8 as the QB3 (22.4 PPG) on the season while generating +0.12 EPA per dropback (QB15). Over his last four starts, his efficiency has jumped to +0.41 EPA per dropback (QB1) and 30.2 fantasy points per game. He continues to offer a functional rushing baseline, contributing 30.1 rushing yards per game (sixth). I'm not sure if A.J. Brown is good enough to take Maye over the top to the next tier, but the role players are making enough plays to make him an A-tier QB1 again.
The Patriots now draw a Dolphins defense allowing the seventh-most half PPR points per game to QBs. Miami recently surrendered 24.6 points to Joe Burrow (QB8) and 23.5 points to Geno Smith (QB5) in its last two games. New England is listed as 7.5-point road favorites with an implied team total of 26.0 points (fifth).
4. Dak Prescott (vs. ARI) - 24.9 proj. points
Prescott stalled out from Weeks 3-6 but rebounded last week against the Eagles with a three-score outing. He's the QB15 across the season. That should be his worst stretch, however. The schedule loosens up, and his entire OL is healthy and playing extremely well. They've also doubled down on just throwing to their superstar duo of WRs. It's an awesome environment.
The Cowboys have the highest team total of the week (30.75 points), and that'll be one of the highest of any team all year. Bo Nix (QB3), Jared Goff (QB4) and Jameis Winston (QB6) all had huge outings most recently versus the Cardinals. Arizona's DT1 Walter Nolen has been sidelined, too. It's go time at home.
5. Jayden Daniels (vs. PHI) - 20.9 proj. points
Daniels is the per-game QB7 this year, even including the halftime exit in Week 2. He's rebounded with QB3 and QB7 performances, respectively, since returning from his dislocated elbow, and that brace or the threat of another injury hasn't dissuaded him from rushing like normal. He's the QB1 in rushing yards per game (53.3). His issue is no Terry McLaurin. They did get Chig Okonkwo back and will have explosive third-rounder Antonio Williams to fill the gap, but it's a pretty mediocre skill group for a first-time play caller. Daniels' rushing floor is still far too valuable to have any worry, though.
The upcoming date with Philadelphia presents a test against a defense yielding the eighth-most half PPR points to the position (20.4 per game). Recent opposing QBs have posted solid numbers against the Eagles, including Dak Prescott (23.3 points), Bryce Young (19.8), and Trevor Lawrence (23.7 points). Philadelphia also sits seventh in half PPR points allowed to QB rushing, and its LB/S/CB2 play has been very underwhelming. Last Monday night's loss included poor effort by its superstar DT duo, too. Washington enters this home clash as 4.5-point home favorites with a 23.25-point implied team total (14th). I don't view Philly as a great unit right now.
6. Joe Burrow (vs. TEN) - 24.4 proj. points
Burrow has operated as the per-game QB2 (23.0 PPG) through six games, posting +0.21 EPA per dropback (QB8). He leads the league with 2.5 passing touchdowns per game, throwing multiple touchdowns in four consecutive starts. Cincinnati has leaned into the pass heavily, ranking first in neutral pass rate at 65% on early downs. That volume meets a Titans defense that ranks 22nd in half PPR points allowed to quarterbacks. Tennessee has given up at least 20 fantasy points to opposing signal callers in three of their past four games. The Bengals are 10-point home favorites with an implied team total of 28.25 points (third).
Burrow's downfield shots have been in a league of their own:
Then there are the Titans. It's been a struggle in the secondary all year long with one of their main free agents being healthy-scratched at CB. Deshaun Watson (QB10), Daniel Jones (QB12), CJ Stroud (QB14) and part-time Lamar Jackson (QB11) have all had nice outings against them this month. And they just traded Jeffery Simmons. A large 28.25-point team total (third) for the Bengals is unsurprising.
7. Trevor Lawrence (vs. IND) - 19.9 proj. points
Fresh off the bye, Lawrence is currently the per-game QB11 (20.4 PPG) on the year while generating +0.30 EPA per dropback (QB4). He has thrown 14 touchdown passes across six starts, alongside 11.7 rushing yards per game (20th). He'll be without one of his tackles for the rest of the year, but they at least have one of the most experienced swing tackles behind him. In general, Lawrence has a great coaching staff and skill talent around him, while being behind an iffy OL. That was true last year when he was a fantasy QB1.
Jacksonville now hosts a tanking Indianapolis defense that ranks 12th in half PPR points allowed to QBs. They just traded DT1 DeForest Buckner and the best LG in the NFL in Quenton Nelson this week. Sauce Gardner has also missed time recently. It's arguably the worst defense on paper right now. The Jaguars enter as 7.5-point home favorites with an implied team total of 28.25 points (third).
8. Jordan Love (vs. CAR) - 19 proj. points
Love has delivered steady per-game scoring as the QB14 (19.6 half PPR points), averaging 280 passing yards per contest (fourth) with +0.13 EPA per dropback (QB12). He has generated multiple passing scores in six of seven starts, operating comfortably within Green Bay's pass-friendly approach. This team is easily leading in air yards, and even with RB Josh Jacobs back last week, they had an above-average neutral pass rate. That's because their OL is terrible (and on their third-string C now), and they trust Love to figure out the most. Things could change if Matthew Golden (shoulder/foot) can't suit up on Thursday Night Football.
The Panthers can be absolutely gashed on the ground, allowing the most rushing yards per game (153.2). They are also missing their top-two corners and EDGE1 Jaelan Phillips, so it's more than their entire defense stinks than they are a strict run funnel. Jared Goff dropped 412 total yards on them in Week 4 when the Panthers offense was alive. Green Bay carries a 25.5-point implied team total (seventh) as 3.5-point home favorites.
9. Matthew Stafford (vs. LAC) - 19 proj. points
The Rams used 3-TE sets at a league-high rate last game without Davante Adams, and that'll continue to be their plan. It likely means a far lower average depth of target with narrower margins, but they've had tons of success in these heavier looks and are still third in neutral pass rate (63%). Puka Nacua looks like he isn't at 100% either on tape, but that didn't stop Stafford from being the QB11 last week in a blowout win. He's the QB13 in fantasy points per game on QB2 yards, QB6 touchdowns and QB34 rushing.
Now he draws a Chargers defense that is 25th in half PPR points allowed to QBs, surrendering just 13.0 fantasy points per game to QB passing (27th). Some of that is schedule and scheme, but there isn't a talent advantage to me, especially with LB/S Derwin James sidelined. If the Chargers offense can threaten an injured Rams defense at all, it's a good spot for Stafford. Los Angeles enters as 6.5-point home favorites with a 26.0-point team total (fifth).
10. Jacoby Brissett (at DAL) - 19.9 proj. points
Brissett is not creating, nor is he pushing the ball enough to be trusted week to week. That said, Brissett is functional enough to soak up garbage time stats when the opposing defense is leaky. He has been the QB5 against the 49ers and QB7 against the Lions this season, while predictably stinking it up against SEA, LAC, LAR and DEN. The hope is that Jeremiyah Love is back so they can start phasing out the Tyler Allgeier runs, and eventually these 50/50 balls to Michael Wilson will result in big plays instead of incompletions.
This week's matchup against the Cowboys falls into the leaking bucket. And it's overflowing. They've allowed 20.3 fantasy points per game to QBs (ninth) with countless coverage busts in an inexperienced defense that is featuring rookies and a first-time play caller. Offenses have thrown on just 44% of their neutral situations against Dallas (32nd), but the Cardinals likely won't have that luxury here. Jordan Love (QB5) and C.J. Stroud (QB4) lit it up through the air and Jalon Daniels pulled off the upset in Week 5 against them. Arizona heads on the road as 6.5-point road underdogs with an implied total of 24 points (12th).
11. Caleb Williams (at SEA) - 19.9 proj. points
Williams is dicing defenses up from the pocket far more now than he ever has before. Scary. He hasn't needed to run as much since the hamstring injury, but now that we're in the third game back, he can probably start leaning into it more when needed. Williams is the QB5 in EPA per dropback this season and has been fantasy's QB1, QB15 and QB7 in his three games away from the Flores-in-the-rain game. He won't have TE2 Cole Kmet now, but that could mean fewer under center runs in favor of more 3-WR sets that get Luther Burden III onto the field more. Not a bad swap for Williams.
The Seahawks are easily a top-two defense in the NFL. They've allowed just 12.7 fantasy points per game to QBs (31st) on the fewest passing yards per game (158). They are the best rushing defense by a mile as well. If there is a weakness, it's in the secondary at post safety and CB2, and Williams has the skill set to buy time and deliver it that way. It's just a very small window. Just ask Patrick Mahomes (179 scoreless yards) and Bo Nix (109 scoreless yards) most recently. The closer comp is probably Brock Purdy, who was the QB17 with 16.2 fantasy points in Week 5. Chicago heads into Lumen Field as 3-point road underdogs with a 21.75-point team total (18th).
12. Jared Goff (vs. MIN) - 20 proj. points
Goff is quietly the QB4 in fantasy points per game (22.2) on QB3 EPA per dropback and the most passing yards per game (QB1). Their defense has left them in shootouts, and Goff's maturity in the offense speaks for itself. He is the most under-appreciated thrower in the game right now.
Detroit now welcomes a Minnesota defense that is not only the best in just about every pass-game mark this season but is really changing the game defensively across the league. They've allowed 10.3 fantasy points per game to QBs with the most recent starters putting up 5.6, 3.8, and 4.5 fantasy points. That is straight-up hilarious. Now, Goff is much better equipped to handle the pressures DC Brian Flores delivers and has been better under pressure later in his career. The problem is offenses facing Minnesota have passed in neutral situations just 47% of the time (bottom-three), and it's been harder to find explosives too. A minimized 24.75-point team total (ninth) seems fair. This is truly elite offense versus elite defense. Can't wait.
13. Kyler Murray (at DET) - 20.4 proj. points
Murray has to play better. He looks extremely fast (QB9 in rush YPG), but his accuracy on these timing routes has been lacking and he's turned down other intermediate throws. He has made enough splash plays to keep the Vikings undefeated, but it hasn't been a sustainable offense so far. That could change at any point.
What a matchup for him here. The Lions are allowing the most fantasy points to QBs (27.2) and passing yards per game (313.5). Jordan Love (QB12), Jacoby Brissett (QB7), Bryce Young (QB7) and Geno Smith (QB4) have been electric against them this month, and only Love is firmly better than Murray. Minnesota has been more conservative on offense because its defense is outstanding, but we'll see if they open it up a bit against the Lions. The Vikings have a 21.75-point team total.
14. Kirk Cousins (at NYJ) - 19 proj. points
Cousins has cleared 17.8 fantasy points in 6 of 7 games as the QB12 across the season. The Raiders pass game has been fun while living in 2-TE land, and Tre Tucker is making enough downfield magic happen for Cousins to be treated seriously in the best matchups. It sounds like coach Klint Kubiak wants to see more of Cousins, rather than get Fernando Mendoza reps, so let's ride this while we can. Cousins is the QB13 in EPA per dropback, QB6 in pass yards per game (268) and QB4 in passing touchdowns per game (QB4).
The Jets are pretty soft defensively. They allowed Malik Willis to win his first game on the back of a QB4 overall finish, and Drake Maye was the QB4 as well the week prior, even with A.J. Brown dropping the ball all game long. The Raiders have a solid 22.0-point team total (16th) as slight road underdogs. The Jets offense is good enough to put up points on the Raiders, so this does have some sloppy shootout appeal.
15. Bryce Young (at GB) - 16.5 proj. points
Young caved under pressure last week right away, and when he was in must-drop-back situations, the offense looked stuck. He'll be without star LG Damien Lewis and RT Taylor Moton on a short rest. Young is fantasy's QB8 this season on QB3 passing yards per game and the second-highest neutral pass rate, but he's also been at his best against CHI, ATL, DET and PHI.
The chaos Bucs and Browns have slowed him down, and I'd put the Packers in that bucket based on how they're coached and with the talent they have at safety. Green Bay has allowed the fifth-fewest fantasy points to QBs (15.3) but has struggled against the run at times. They recently kept Jared Goff (QB13) and Dak Prescott (QB17) out of the QB1 podium. Carolina is listed as 3.5-point road underdogs with a 22-point team total (16th).
16. Patrick Mahomes (at DEN) - 19.4 proj. points
Let's see if Rashee Rice and RT Jaylon Moore are going to play first. They'll make a big difference after last week's flop against the Seahawks. The Broncos defense is back to tip-top shape with CB1 Pat Surtain, CB2 Riley Moss and EDGE2 Jonathon Cooper back. Mahomes was the QB9 against the diminished version of the Broncos in Week 1 (207-3 total) but has been the QB13, QB12 and QB29 with 0-1 total touchdowns in his other recent outings against them. Kansas City has a 21.0-point team total, and Mahomes hasn't run it nearly as much as last year to save fantasy days with 11.8 rushing yards per game (QB19).
17. Aaron Rodgers (vs. CLE) - 18 proj. points
18. Sam Darnold (vs. CHI) - 18.4 proj. points
19. Baker Mayfield (vs. ATL) - 19.4 proj. points
20. Malik Willis (vs. NE) - 15.9 proj. points
Nix had a wild 60-yard scramble TD and a long RJ Harvey screen TD against a blitz; good to see but can't be relied on moving forward. The bigger takeaway was Nix's aggressiveness as a passer, specifically in empty sets where he had a 16.6 aDOT on five attempts, leading to 94 yards. If Nix isn't comfortable turning his back post-snap, then these types of wrinkles from Sean Payton will help on the margins. It's good to see Denver's pass rate tick back up, too.
Unfortunately, Nix completed just 13 passes on 30 dropbacks outside of those empty looks. That's against the Cardinals!!! The box score was a lot better than the tape to me.
22. Michael Penix Jr. (at TB) - 18.4 proj. points
23. Deshaun Watson (at PIT) - 16.4 proj. points
24. Tanner McKee (at WAS) - 13.4 proj. points
25. Justin Herbert (at LAR) - 19.4 proj. points
26. Geno Smith (vs. LV) - 18.9 proj. points
27. Daniel Jones (at JAX) - 13.9 proj. points
28. Cam Ward (at CIN) - 13.9 proj. points
1. Trey McBride (at DAL) - 69.5 proj. yards
McBride enters as the TE3 on TE1 usage over his last 4 games, averaging 10.8 targets and 16.5 expected half PPR points. He is coming off a season-high 22.1 half PPR points in Week 7, hauling in 10-of-13 targets for 111 yards and 1 touchdown. This is a carbon copy of last year's TE1 overall finish.
Dallas ranks 18th in half PPR points allowed to TEs at 9.8 per game, and they are a little more talented at LB and S than they are CB. By no means is this a difficult spot, and the game script is as favorable as it gets with the Cardinals projected to lose by a touchdown while carrying a 24.0-point team total (12th) themselves. He had 55-1 receiving in a win over the Cowboys last year.
2. Brock Bowers (at NYJ) - 69.5 proj. yards
Bowers is the TE1 on TE2 overall usage this season. It's been a bit quieter in the last two games with star-level DBs covering him in isolation, but Bowers still holds the line in tougher matchups and will dominate the easier ones. Even with a season-low 8 targets in Week 7 (first of all, lol), he secured 6 receptions for 73 yards and a 19% target share. Over the past month he's averaging 103 air yards per game. Incredible.
The Jets sit 27th in half PPR points allowed to TEs (just 8.0 per game), though they did allow double-digit scores to Hunter Henry (12.8) in Week 6 and Greg Dulcich (11.1) in Week 7. There's nothing too scary about their DB room on paper, but their LB room has been solid. The Raiders enter as 1.5-point road underdogs with an implied total of 22 points (17th). This game has sloppy shootout appeal.
3. Tucker Kraft (vs. CAR) - 39.5 proj. yards
After limited snaps and uncharacteristic drops and poor blocking early on, Kraft has rebounded recently. He's the TE10 on TE7 usage over his last 4 games, averaging 6.5 targets and 11.0 expected half PPR points. We haven't seen the signature YAC moments from, but those will come eventually. It sounds like Matthew Golden will play despite missing the short week of practices. Any injury to the top-2 targets would be a big deal, as they have little skill group depth.
Carolina ranks 14th in half PPR points allowed to opposing tight ends at 11.0 per game, having yielded monster weeks to Harold Fannin (20.6) and Sam LaPorta (18.4) earlier this season. They are better at LB and nickel than they are elsewhere right now, but the entire defense is in tough shape. Green Bay is listed as 3.5-point home favorites with an implied team total of 25.5 points (6th). His touchdown odds are higher than most, even if he's less likely to see 8+ targets.
4. Colston Loveland (at SEA) - 39.5 proj. yards
Loveland had a trio of explosives detached from the OL; a TD in a 3-TE set where he made a defender miss, an awesome in-breaking where he showed rare route running against a nickel and a fourth-down conversion in man coverage. A few balls off his hands prevented an even bigger day, but long story short: Loveland is back. He's the TE2 and TE5 in expected points, respectively, since Caleb Williams has returned. In games with him since Week 10 last year, Loveland is the TE5 on TE3 usage.
A matchup with the Seahawks is a doozy. They're 3rd-best against fantasy TEs this year on the fewest passing yards per game (158). They have LB/S Nick Emmanwori and LB Ernest Jones roaming the middle of the field, paired with one of the most dominant DLs. The Bears are still projected for 21.75 points (16th) despite the very difficult road matchup, but that is far worse than normal. The margins are thinner for Loveland.
5. Sam LaPorta (vs. MIN) - 49.5 proj. yards
The road is rocky on a week to week basis given the amount of star-level skill players they have, but LaPorta tends to be worth the stomach ache. He's the TE6 on TE4 usage this season with amazing yards after the catch and red zone usage. He can leave games with a 6% target share like he did last week, but he can also finish as the TE1 overall like he did in Week 4. It is what it is.
The Vikings have shut down opposing TEs all season, allowing the fewest half PPR points per game to the position at 5.4 (32nd). Opponents facing Minnesota have leaned heavily away from the pass, posting an extreme 47% neutral pass rate (3rd-lowest), and when teams do pass, they often times keep their TEs in to block. They're also very smart at LB and S, making it harder to find coverage busts. Detroit heads into the divisional matchup as 3-point home favorites with a 24.75-point team total (9th).
6. Tyler Warren (at JAX) - 39.5 proj. yards
We'll see if he can return, but the Jaguars defense is the biggest pass funnel in the NFL this year. It'd be a great spot for him, with their safeties being the weakest link on the team.
Separately, Warren is a great buy low with Josh Downs (and maybe Keenan Allen) being shopped ahead of the deadline. They will be trailing often the rest of the way without Quenton Nelson and DeForest Buckner, and Warren has been an excellent PPR scam before.
7. Brenton Strange (vs. IND) - 39.5 proj. yards
Strange has carved out consistent volume recently, commanding at least 7 targets in 3-straight outings. Across his last 4 games, he sits as the TE12 on TE9 usage, averaging 8.7 half PPR points, 8.7 expected points per contest, and a 22% target share. In an offense this good, that means Strange is more of a low-end TE1 than a TE2.
Indianapolis ranks 13th in half PPR points allowed to TEs at 11.3 points per game. The Colts have shown vulnerability to the position recently, giving up 19.0 half PPR points to Pat Freiermuth in Week 5 and 11.5 points to T.J. Hockenson in Week 7. Their LB room has been terrible, and they just traded away their best player in DeForest Buckner. Jacksonville hosts this divisional clash as 7.5-point home favorites with a healthy implied team total of 28.0 points (4th).
8. Dalton Kincaid (vs. BAL) - 49.5 proj. yards
There isn't a TE with more variance than Kincaid for a million reasons. When smoothing things out, Kincaid is the TE11 on TE17 usage this season, which is eerily similar to where he finished in 2025. Ironically, he's been better in games with D.J. Moore, though that's small sample noise than anything else. He is capable of lucking into touchdowns or creating an explosive in 1-on-1, but he is also only averaging 4.8 targets per game. Kincaid is a boom-bust TE1/2 in normal games.
Baltimore ranks middle of the pack against TEs, yielding 10.3 half PPR points per game (17th). The Ravens have shown vulnerability to top options, allowing a 5-42-1 line to Kyle Pitts (TE8) in Week 5 and two tight end scores in Week 7 to Drew Sample and Mike Gesicki. It's shocking when they have Kyle Hamilton and Roquan Smith with an elite play-calling head coach, but it's hard to call them a great unit right now. Buffalo enters as 3.5-point home favorites with an implied total of 28.5 points (2nd).
9. Kyle Pitts Sr. (at TB) - 39.5 proj. yards
We should officially throw out the two games without Michael Penix Jr.
Pitts is averaging 3.1 more targets per game, and over the past month, Pitts is the TE4 on TE10 usage. He won't run this pure with touchdowns, but he is passing the receiving eye test, particularly on quick out routes. If Penix continues this quick-release offense with TE whisperer Kevin Stefanski, Pitts stands to benefit.
The Buccaneers have been generous to tight ends, giving up 13.4 half PPR points per game (eighth-most). Tampa Bay has allowed top-12 weekly finishes to Tucker Kraft (TE5), Darnell Washington (TE11) and Darren Waller (TE8) over the past month. Atlanta is listed as 2.5-point road underdogs with a 22.0-point team total (15th).
10. Travis Kelce (at DEN) - 49.5 proj. yards
We'll probably look back at the first three weeks of the year when Kelce was literally leading the NFL in yards after catch as the outlier of the season. Over the past month, Kelce is the TE18 on TE20 despite injuries to multiple WRs. On tape, Kelce looks okay, but even more of his production now is slipping out after chip help or four seconds after the play as Patrick Mahomes runs around. That's fun. It's just going to come with far less consistency, especially when Rice is back.
Denver ranks ninth-friendliest against the position, allowing 12.7 half PPR points per game to TEs. The Broncos just yielded a massive 10-111-1 receiving line on 13 targets to Trey McBride (TE2) in Week 7 and conceded a score to George Kittle (TE4) in Week 4. Kelce had 71 yards in Week 1 and was the TE21 and TE3 in 2025 against them. Kansas City enters as 1.5-point road favorites with a 21.5-point team total (20th).
11. T.J. Hockenson (at DET) - 39.5 proj. yards
Hockenson found the end zone from five yards out in Week 7, catching four of five targets for 35 yards and 11.5 half PPR points against Indianapolis. Over his last four games, he is the TE14 on TE11 usage, averaging 8.3 half PPR points and 8.6 expected points per contest. His underlying opportunity has been volatile, swinging from a massive 13-119-0 line on 13 targets in Week 4 (without Justin Jefferson) to just a single seven-yard grab in Week 5. He holds a 20% target share and 5.8 targets per game over that recent four-game sample.
Detroit has been vulnerable to tight ends, ranking first in half PPR points allowed at 24.7 points per game. Over the last four weeks, the Lions have surrendered big games to Kenyon Sadiq (20.0 half PPR points), Trey McBride (17.1), Teagan Quitoriano (14.5!!!!), and Tucker Kraft (12.8). Their return of S Brian Branch should help alleviate this production, however. Minnesota travels to Detroit as 3-point road underdogs with an implied team total of 21.75 points (19th).
Goedert is holding onto low-end TE1 life right now, even with Tanner McKee out there. He's been the TE10, TE17 and TE14 in usage since returning from injury, hovering between 7.1 and 10.0 expected half PPR points. McKee is willing to test throws over the middle, and the OL didn't look horrific last week, to their credit. Goedert's value is highest with DeVonta Smith and Dontayvion Wicks sidelined.
Washington represents an elite on-paper spot, ranking second in half PPR points allowed to tight ends (18.4 per game) while offenses throw against them at the second-highest neutral rate in the NFL (60%). They crowd the line of scrimmage and have allowed TEs to leak behind them for a chunk of the year, even with first-round LB Sonny Styles looking like a future All-Pro. Goedert was included in that when he finished as the TE2 overall on 77-2 receiving. The issue is Philadelphia is listed as 4.5-point road underdogs with an implied team total of 18 points (28th). Uh oh.
13. Hunter Henry (at MIA) - 39.5 proj. yards
Henry is the TE7 on TE13 usage across his last 4 games, averaging 11.0 half PPR points on 7.7 expected points per contest. He set season highs with 7 targets, 7 catches, and 71 yards in Week 7, earning a 24% target share in the process. That extended a steady run where he found the end zone in both Week 5 and Week 6 while commanding at least 4 targets in 4 consecutive outings. The fact that A.J. Brown isn't looking like an All Pro player any more paired with the losses of Romeo Doubs and Mack Hollins has led to more reliance on their TE duo. By the way, Eli Raridon is a dude in the making.
Miami has been one of the most vulnerable matchups in the league for tight ends, allowing the 3rd-most half PPR points per game at 17.5. The Dolphins recently allowed a 5-62-2 performance to Mason Taylor (TE1) in Week 7 and a monster 13-119-0 line to T.J. Hockenson (TE2) in Week 4. Travis Kelce and George Kittle taunted them to open the year, too. New England heads on the road as 7.5-point road favorites with a 26.0-point implied total (5th). They'll take advantage of the most inexperienced defense in the league.
14. Chig Okonkwo (vs. PHI) - 24.5 proj. yards
Okonkwo set season highs across the board in Week 6 against San Francisco, hauling in all 7 of his targets for 69 yards and 10.4 half PPR points. That obviously isn't a coincidence with Terry McLaurin leaving that game early. Even in Week 5, Okonkwo was the TE15 on TE20 as he's inched closer to fantasy relevance after an injury derailed his first month. The Commanders have had great fantasy production whenever Jayden Daniels has been healthy, dating back to the Zach Ertz era. There's waiver wire start appeal.
The Eagles rank 26th in half PPR points allowed to TEs, giving up just 8.2 points per game. In their Week 1 meeting, Okonkwo was held to 2 catches for 16 yards on 3 targets, though Tommy Tremble did manage 2 touchdowns against Philadelphia in Week 6 and Brenton Strange posted 68 yards the week prior. I'm less scared of SCB Cooper DeJean and this highly-invested LB room now than I was entering the season. Washington enters as 4.5-point home favorites with an implied team total of 22.5 points (14th).
15. Tyler Higbee (vs. LAC) - 24.5 proj. yards
Higbee has settled back into a low-volume role, ranking as the TE21 on TE22 usage over his last four games. After generating 67 and 83 receiving yards in Weeks four and five, his opportunities slipped to four and three targets over his past two outings. He has averaged 46.5 receiving yards and 6.1 half PPR points per game across this four-game stretch, finishing with a modest 11% target share in Week 7. The Rams continue to funnel passes heavily toward their wide receivers, leaving Higbee with minimal underneath work.
The upcoming matchup brings a stingy test against the Chargers, who rank 24th in half PPR points allowed to tight ends at 8.8 per game. Los Angeles holds a top-three neutral pass rate at 63% through seven weeks, which gives the passing offense steady baseline dropbacks even in neutral scripts. The Chargers have suppressed tight end rooms consistently, with Dalton Kincaid held to 2.8 half PPR points in Week 3 and Travis Kelce managing 7.3 points in Week 6. The Rams enter as 6.5-point home favorites with an implied team total of 25.5 points (seventh).
16. Mark Andrews (at BUF) - 24.5 proj. yards
17. Harold Fannin Jr. (at PIT) - 39.5 proj. yards
Hey! Fannin got his first screen target of the season, obviously resulting in two missed tackles and a first down. He was throwing Titans off himself for much of the game, finishing as the TE14 on TE9 usage after two duds leading into that outing. At the same time, he won't be left wide open for 36-yard gains like he was in this one very often.
Fannin is fighting the breakouts of rookies KC Concepcion and Denzel Boston, so he's only been the TE17 on TE18 usage this year as the most volatile player at his position. Deshaun Watson is missing just enough throws to rule out the upside case, while making enough plays to keep TE1/2 border hope alive.
18. Pat Freiermuth (vs. CLE) - 24.5 proj. yards
19. Colby Parkinson (vs. LAC) - 24.5 proj. yards
Parkinson is a red-zone and check-and-release merchant with rare size (6'7", 266lbs), but it's a role that's needed with the Rams setting a season-high 35 snaps with three+ TEs on the field. He's their best blocker and will be in this role, even if Terrance Ferguson (ankle) returns soon. Tyler Higbee, Dennis Allen and T-Ferg will run fancier routes and are less likely to volleyball-set a target for an INT like Parkinson did last week, but Parkinson can run pure with TDs at any time. He was the TE10 on TE10 usage in Week 6 before last week's TE17 on TE18 usage outing.
20. Mike Gesicki (vs. TEN) - 24.5 proj. yards
21. Mason Taylor (vs. LV) - 24.5 proj. yards
22. Darren Waller (at GB) - 24.5 proj. yards
23. Michael Mayer (at NYJ) - 24.5 proj. yards
24. Eli Raridon (at MIA) - 24.5 proj. yards
26. Darnell Washington (vs. CLE) - 24.5 proj. yards
27. Kenyon Sadiq (vs. LV) - 14.5 proj. yards
28. Jake Ferguson (vs. ARI) - 14.5 proj. yards
29. Greg Dulcich (vs. NE) - 24.5 proj. yards
31. Tommy Tremble (at GB) - 14.5 proj. yards
34. Gunnar Helm (at CIN) - 14.5 proj. yards
Source: Sports
